Modelling

Predictive risk models are used to predict such potentially avoidable and costly events as unplanned hospital admissions. They form a key element in wider strategies to address chronic illness. DH has made it clear that it does not intend to commission updates to the Patients at Risk of Re-hospitalisation tool (PARR++) or the Combined Predictive Model, so the Nuffield Trust has stepped into the breach and offers a guide to help commissioners choose appropriate models.